Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer called the Trump rally, but if you listened to him in mid-December, you may have left money on the table.
That’s when Dwyer went neutral.
“I’ve been a little bit cautious looking for a correction — too early,” the firm’s chief market strategist said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “You rammed so hard after the election, that you went too far, too fast especially in the ‘Trump trade.'”
Dwyer first turned neutral on the stock market in July. Days before the Nov. 8 election, he turned bullish.
After he dialed back his enthusiasm for stocks once again on Dec. 19, the S&P ripped by 7 percent.
Since Dwyer’s latest decision to turn neutral, the S&P 500 is up more than 4 percent — with the index breaking intraday all-time highs 14 times in that period.
“When you downgrade the market, you’re looking to get back in, you just need to work off some of the overbought conditions,” he said.
He attributes the record gains to a handful of big tech stocks, pointing out that the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund is up more than 10 percent since late last year.
But now Dwyer says he’s about to come off the sidelines.
His S&P 500 year-end target is now 2,470, a number that he calls “conservative.” That’s about 5½ percent upside from current levels.
He says investors should start avoiding big tech and health care, two trades that have been working over the past few months. Dwyer expects the more typical-Trump trades such as financials and industrials to ultimately add cheer to investors’ portfolios this year.
“Gold is overbought, the VIX is overbought, the yen is overbought and, of course, U.S. Treasury bond prices are overbought. So the investment community has already put on the defensive trade. So I’m looking to lean into any further weakness,” he said.
A portion of this activity is due to the uncertainties surrounding the French election, which many are seeing as a proxy on the future of Europe as it exists now. The first round takes place Sunday.
“When you’re in a backdrop where you have a positive yield curve, a still accommodative Fed policy and a positive growth trajectory, things like [right-winger Marine] Le Pen winning or Brexit or Trump winning, those are all opportunities. Sometimes the market gods give you an opportunity to get in at better prices. I think we are about to have one of those.”