“Why am I so dismissive of this? Because while the combination is rational … the Disney analyst who promoted the idea calls the option — the possibility — ‘greater than zero percent,'” the “Mad Money” host said. “Talk about a low bar. They’re basically just saying anything’s possible.”
In terms of mutual benefit, the Disney analyst, Steven Cahall, assumes in his note that Apple could get Disney for a 40 percent premium, and the Apple analyst, Amit Daryanani, believes a merger could boost Apple’s service revenues to 29 percent of its earnings.
Cahall also says that the combination would create a “$1 trillion company with almost limitless opportunities in content and technology” thanks to Apple’s cash balances, which could be helped by repatriation, and Disney’s low debt.
For Cramer, the biggest problem is the degree of speculation that went into the analyses.
“Like ‘Aladdin,’ like ‘Lion King,’ the story is fiction,” he said. “Apple hasn’t done any big deals like this, although the company did say in one conference call that they’re open to them.”
That openness is the crux of the issue — neither company is likely to comment on the speculations, so the thought-out scenario these analysts presented cannot be contested.
And although Cahall argues Apple might do well to move away from hardware and better technology at Disney’s theme parks could create “a leader in content creation and distribution that could top Netflix, Google, and Amazon,” the odds of an acquisition remain slim.
“The fact is that if you buy Disney’s stock on this, I’d tell you that you might as well believe in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck and Han Solo and Captain Marvel and anybody else in the stable,” Cramer said.
But Cramer noted that it’s possible that Apple CEO Tim Cook and Disney CEO Bob Iger, who also sits on Apple’s board, may not want the companies to merge.
“The only thing that’s really accomplished by this kind of speculation? The short-sellers will be afraid to bet against Disney’s stock because of newfound fears of a takeover lurking. It really does put a bid underneath, simply because it was just too juicy to ignore,” Cramer concluded.
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