The stock market’s historic win streak could be in jeopardy.
Henrich’s latest chart shows fewer and fewer stocks moving above their 50 day moving averages. It’s the same situation which appeared right before stocks saw a serious pullback in Summer 2015, according to Henrich, a widely followed market watcher.
On “Fast Money, this week, he predicted history will repeat itself.
“In December, we had about 80 percent of stocks above the 50 day moving average. In January, it was about 75. Yesterday [Wednesday], it was actually just in the low 60s,” said Henrich. “So, 40 percent of stocks were not even above their 50 day [moving average]. So, that shows underlying weakness as we are stretching to go to higher prices.”
He’s been deep in the bear camp for most of the past year. Last May, he predicted the S&P could sink as low as 1,573 within months. The scenario never materialized, and the stock market began registering all-time highs.
Yet, Henrich is standing firm and telling investors that the rally is on borrowed time. He’s forecasting a 6 – 10 percent pullback that’ll come this spring. Based on current S&P levels, it would bring the index around the 2100-2175 level.
“We’re seeing a repeating of a pattern that we’ve seen a number of times in the last couple of years when we make new highs,” said Henrich. “Prices make highs, and volume dies… January volume was very low and volume right now on these new highs is not extremely impressive.”
According to Henrich, there’s been an ‘incredible’ increase in price-to-earnings ratios on multiple levels. “Basically, we’re running about 17 to 25 percent above the ten year average,” he said.
He also highlights issues stemming from historic and unsustainable low volatility. It’s a situation, he says, that doesn’t bode well for sustainable breakouts to new highs.
And, Henrich warns that the stock market winners are highly stretched, adding to the probability of a sizable sell-off.
Yet, there could be some light at the end of this bearish call, and it all has to do with new policies coming out of the Trump administration.
“The real battle for this market becomes whether all these tax cuts and infrastructure spending actually pan out in terms of an earnings growth story,” said Henrich.