American Trucking Associations predicts that freight volumes will grow 2.8% this year and then 3.4% per year through 2023, according to the latest annual long-term transportation forecast.
In 2017, ATA estimates that 15.18 billion tons of freight will be moved in all modes, and the figure will rise to 20.73 billion in 2028.
“As the U.S. population grows and the economy increases with it, we will see continued gains in demand for freight transportation,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said.
He forecasts gross domestic product will grow 2.3% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018. At the same time, the electronic logging mandate that will take ffect in December is likely to drive some truckers off the road.
“Over the forecast period, capacity shortfalls will develop,” the report said. “We are starting to see some selected tightness in freight-handling capacity, enough to suggest that capacity expansion will be required if the modes are going to be able to handle anticipated growth.”
The forecast calls for GDP to decline to a 2.2% annual pace from 2019 to 2023 and decelerate to 1.9% between 2024 and 2028. Consumer spending, business investment, residential investment, government spending and industrial output are expected to grow through 2028, although it will be at a gradually slower pace over time. However, exports are due to rise during the same period, as will housing starts and the consumer and producer price indexes.
ATA believes trucking will continue to own a predominant share of the freight market but lose some business. Trucking handled about 70.6% of all tonnage in 2016, and ATA predicts the number will be 70.7% this year.
“While overall truck volumes will continue to rise, and trucking will remain the dominant freight mode — its share of freight tonnage will dip to 67.2% by 2028, with pipelines picking up most of the additional market share, and, to a lesser extent, rail intermodal,” Costello said.
“The growth in pipeline tonnage will be shaped by the rapid growth we anticipate in domestic petroleum demand, rising demand for natural gas, and the renaissance in domestic oil and natural gas production,” according to the report.
Costello anticipates pipelines to be the fastest-growing mode through 2028 and intermodal rail to be second. While he expects truckload tonnage to increase 2.7% annually through 2023 and 2% until 2028, less-than-truckload will grow at a greater 3.3% clip until 2023 and 2.9% through 2028. Private carrier volume will grow 2.8% until 2023 and 2.1% through 2028.
“As we look ahead at the rest of the 21st century, the projections found in Freight Transportation Forecast are invaluable to decision makers in the board room and the hearing room alike,” ATA President Chris Spear said. “Having good, accurate data is critical to making sure businesses are making appropriate investments in their companies and that our government is making the proper investments in our nation’s infrastructure.”