UK consumer confidence hit by hung parliament and house prices
UK consumer confidence has plunged since June’s general election, as the shock of a hung parliament hits households.
It gives the Bank of England a fresh headache as it considers the health of the UK economy, ahead of today’s Financial Stability Report.
Pollsters at YouGov found that UK citizens are fretting about political uncertainty, rising inflation, falling real wages, and the state of the housing market.
YouGov found there was a “pronounced collapse in consumer confidence following the election”, sending its consumer morale index sliding to 105.2 from 109.1.
For June as a whole, consumer confidence dropped to 106.9, its second-lowest level since the summer of 2013.
Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov, says that the UK housing slowdown is causing particular alarm (Nationwide says prices have fallen for the last three months)
“The hung parliament seems to have further dampened consumers’ spirits, which were already sinking following the continued squeeze on household finances.
“But the real cause for alarm will be the cooling of the property market, as this is one of the key things that has propped up consumer confidence over the past few years.”
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The agenda: Bank of England’s financial stability report
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
We’re facing central bank overload today, with monetary policy chiefs speaking in London, and the Portuguese town of Sintra.
All eyes will be on the Bank of England, as its powerful Financial Policy Committee releases its latest report followed by a press conference with Governor Mark Carney.
The FPC, which is charged with maintaining financial stability, could order banks to rein in their riskier lending, following growing fears that consumer borrowing is getting out of hand.
The Bank could also tell City banks to start restocking their capital buffers, having previously told banks to lend more after the Brexit vote.
Meanwhile in sunny (ish) Sintra, the European Central Bank is holding its annual forum. We’ll be hearing from Mario Draghi, ECB president, who last night told students in Portugal that his massive stimulus scheme was creating employment.
Challenged over the Bank’s huge money-printing programme, Draghi declared that:
“The millennials that found a job because of our policy, I’m pretty sure they are okay” [with the ECB’s policies] .
And he also denied that savers had been unfairly treated, arguing that they’re also benefitting from the recovery, as:
“Recessions are not good for anybody, savers or non-savers,
Bloomberg Economics
(@economics)Draghi defends #ECB stimulus saying jobs matter most for equality https://t.co/TWdIRoWxLh pic.twitter.com/cwRML1qh1Z
It could be a busy morning, as there’s a strong chance that Google will be hit with a whopping fine this morning, of over €1bn, for breaching Europe’s competition rules.
That would end a long inquiry into whether Google used its dominant search engine to unfairly promote its Google Shopping service, but could spark an angry response from America.
And then tonight, the world’s most powerful central banker, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, is speaking at London’s Royal Academy. We’re promised a “wide-ranging discussion about global economic issues.”
On the corporate front, retail group Debenhams and car hire chain Northgate are reporting results, plus there are retail sales figures in the UK and consumer confidence stats from America to keep us on our toes.
The agenda
- 9am BST: Mario Draghi gives keynote speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra
- 10.30am BST: Bank of England releases financial stability report
- 11am BST: BoE governor Mark Carney’s press conference
- 11am BST: CBI’s UK retail sales figures
- 3pm: US consumer confidence report
- 6pm: Janet Yellen gives the British Academy ‘President’s Lecture’
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