An exit poll and early results of the U.K. election have led strategists to project that Prime Minister Theresa May’s political leadership has effectively eroded, setting the stage for arduous Brexit talks ahead.
May’s ruling Conservative government may be set to lose its current parliament majority, according to an exit poll released Thursday. So far, the bulk of declared seats have gone to the opposition Labour party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, although that is not necessarily a predictor of the final tally.
Although the results are still incoming, the initial impressions have already triggered widespread doubts over May’s future.
“The alarm bells should be ringing. Even if the exit poll isn’t entirely correct, even if we see a slim majority for the Tories, which would be a good result for May at this point, her future looks bleak in the party,” said Herve Lemahieu, research fellow at the Lowy Institute Institute for International Policy, a Sydney-based think tank. “This (election) is clearly an exercise that backfired on her.”
May will remain PM if the Tories are able to secure a majority, former finance minister George Osborne told local media on Friday, but speculation as to her resignation is already underway regardless of how her party fares.
“She’ll try to stay in the game, but there will be pressures within the party to see her moved. Even if she retains the leadership, she’s lost credibility in the eyes of Brussels in the lead-up to the Brexit negotiations, so she’s in a far worse position,” said Lemahieu.
“This election was a very big miscalculation,” echoed Andrew Gamble, politics professor at the Universities of Cambridge and Sheffield, adding that May’s authority would weaken even with a Conservative majority outcome.
A thin Conservative majority could throw a wrench into already challenging negotiations between U.K. and European Union officials on the U.K.’s divorce from the regional bloc. Formal talks are scheduled for the week of June 19.
The first female chairman of the Conservatives, 60 year-old May surprised the public by calling a snap election on April 18 — a move aimed at strengthening her Brexit negotiations. Back in April, the Conservative government was polling ahead of Labour, but May’s popularity has since suffered.
The election was based on May believing she could bury Labour and get greater support for the hard Brexit outcome she desires, explained Gabriel Stein, managing director of developed markets research at research firm 4CAST-RGE.
Regardless of the final election result, E.U. leaders are now bracing themselves for tricky dialogue ahead.
The scenario of a slim Conservative majority would still greatly worry Brussels, explained Sir Ivor Roberts, president of Trinity College at Oxford. “A small majority means a British government that is not a serious interlocutor.”
May’s wings will be clipped as she will not reflect the will of the British people and that could undermine Brexit settlements, added Stein.
If Labour gets the reigns of government, Corbyn’s team is also expected to struggle with the Brexit process. “They would peddle a soft Brexit, but would still be left with many of same questions as to how to conduct the negotiations,” explained Lemahieu.
“This is not a happy day for Brussels either.”
In the event of Corbyn becoming prime minister, there’s been talk he could call for a repeat Brexit referendum. Former leader of the pro-Brexit UKIP party, Nigel Farage told the BBC on Friday that the country was “looking down the barrel of a second referendum.”
Still, many have pointed out that it’s not clear whether today’s results would differ.
Labour’s unlikely to call for another vote as they haven’t challenged the referendum’s results — unlike the Liberal Democrats who have insisted on a second referendum — said Heather Conley, director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
However, Labour does want a much softer Brexit, she said: “They would like to stay within the customs union and try to find a way to stay as attached to the E.U. as possible.”
But that strategy may fall on deaf ears as European officials have already hardened their position on punishing the U.K., Conley continued.
“We’re in unknown territory.”