U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping finally met Thursday in a highly-anticipated summit with observers saying despite intense speculation prior the encounter, both sides will make it work for their domestic audiences.
“These types of summit are about pageantry. The Chinese are looking to get the right photo ops to show that President Xi is an equal to Donald Trump and that China is a superpower. At the same time, Donald Trump is looking to have a successful summit,” said Harry Kazianis, defense studies director at the Center for National Interest.
Where there is speculation that the Chinese may limit photo opportunities for fear that the impulsive Trump may embarrass Xi, there’s little to worry about as both leaders would want to score points with their constituents with the U.S. president battling troubles with overhauling Obamacare and his Supreme Court nominee, while China prepares for a leadership reshuffle in the fall.
“For both sides, they are going to want a successful summit and that is what we’re going to see,” Kazianis added.
The meeting got off to a cordial start on Thursday at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida with a state dinner.
Trump and Xi are expected to discuss finer points of trade and foreign policy on Friday, finishing the event with a working lunch—but don’t expect a major breakthrough over just two days, said Kazianis.
“The best outcome would be something that makes Donald Trump look good, even look good to himself and that makes President Xi Jinping look good to the people watching in China. it’s a optical matter rather than a substance matter,” said former U.S.-China Business Council President, Robert A. Kapp.
While it was a strong possibility the two sides will agree on issues that will not be discussed in public, it would also be a negative if there was a failure to talk about any of issues on the meeting agenda, he added.
“If they came up with something saying ‘we have a frank and honest exchange of views, the end’, that would be a pretty dark outcome,” said Kapp.
After all, the U.S. views rising China as a strategic competitor.
“One of the reasons why this summit is so important and it needs to go on very well is that both sides have so many pressure points between them whether it’s about the South China Sea, Taiwan, East China Sea, North Korea and now trade. This is a relationship that both sides want to get right and it’s important to really see what compromises and strategies both sides are going to employ,” said Kazianis .
Although Trump said on his campaign trail that he would label China a “currency manipulator” from his first day in office and slap a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports, he has not done so almost three months since his inauguration.
“When every American president sits down in the Oval Office and they have the weight of the world on their shoulders, they start to understand that at least a cooperative business-like relationship with the Chinese is important,” said Kazianis.
As for concrete moves, Xi may offer Trump “some sort of massive investment package” with rumors in Beijing suggesting there may be something between $50-$100 billion in the works whether it be zero interest loans, grants or big development projects, he added.
“Donald Trump wants to do this $1 trillion infrastructure program; those will be things the Chinese can put on the table right away,” he said.
With North Korea a flashpoint, Trump is likely to convey urgency on Pyongyang’s nuclear missile program. Even though Trump himself said in an interview last weekend with the Financial Times that the U.S. will take unilateral action to end North Korea’s nuclear threat unless China raises the pressure on Pyongyang, Kazianis said it was unlikely that Trump goes it alone..
Rather, Trump will likely put in more sanctions that will target the containment of the regime’s nuclear missile program.
The U.S. president may even open up a new avenue to communicate with the isolated nation, he suggested.
“Trump is going to develop some sort of back channel or even direct talks with the North Koreans. I think it’s something we have to do even though it sounds deplorable to talk to such a regime. You need to have that channel with them in case of such a crisis, you have some means of communication,” Kazianis added.