Some economists said they were expecting a moderation ahead, rather than a major move up or down.
Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, said he expected global trade growth peaked in the first quarter and would moderate for the rest of the year: “It will still be better than 2015 and most of last year,” he said.
“The problem is that China kick started this global trade recovery,” he added. “China’s imports were very strong, but China’s imports are now cooling.”
Kuijs noted he didn’t expect European and U.S. economic growth, which wasn’t really accelerating, to offset a slowing China.
Others were much more optimistic.
It’s not “a one-pony show” centered on China, said Klaus Baader, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale.
Instead, while he said he expected trade growth will moderate, he remained optimistic, pointing to a revival in the technology cycle.
“It’s based on a few areas of innovation or increasing penetration that are unlikely to disappear: the iPhone 7 and also the move to wireless electronics. It requires a lot more semiconductors and various electronic components. I don’t think the trend will disappear quickly,” he said.
Baader predicted that increasing “electronification,” including the development of the so-called internet of things and autonomous vehicles, would spur stronger trade growth for the next two years.